What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - April 23rd, 2018

Last week's economic reports included readings on builder confidence, housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Drops by One Point

The National Association of Home Builders reported that builder confidence dipped by one point in April to an index reading of 69. While any reading over 50 indicates positive builder sentiment, NAHB noted that builder sentiment has decreased for the past four months.

During the housing bubble of 2004 and 2005, builder confidence in market conditions averaged 68, but analysts said that the post bubble crash in home values was preceded by several months of decreasing builder sentiment.

Builders are maintaining a steady approach to housing starts despite high demand in many markets. Short supplies of available homes are driving prices higher and causing issues of affordability for would be buyers. Home builders continued to face shortages of buildable lots and rising materials prices. This could account for decisions not to ramp up home construction enough to meet demand.

Housing Starts, Building Permits Rise

According to the Commerce Department, housing starts and building permits issued rose in March. 1.319 million starts were reported on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis as compared to 1.1,295 million starts in February. Analysts expected housing starts to drop in March to 1.255 million, due to rising materials costs and concerns over trade wars. Housing starts were 10.90 percent higher year-over-year.

Single-family housing starts were lower by 3.70 percent lower than for February, but were 8.00 percent higher year-over-year. This suggests that aside from seasonal fluctuations, home builders are boosting their efforts to keep up with demand for homes.

Building permits issued increased in March to 1.354 million on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis; the February reading showed 1.321 million building permits issued. Building permits issued in March were 2.50 percent higher than for February and 7.50 percent higher year-over-year.

Mortgage Rates, Jump, New Jobless Claims Dip

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week, with the rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rising by five basis points to 4.47 percent. This was the highest average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages since January 2014 and the highest weekly rate increase since February. Rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.94 percent and increased by seven basis points.

The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was six basis points higher at 3.67n percent. Discounts points averaged 0.50 percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages, 0.40 percent for 15-year fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims were lower last week with 232,000 new claims filed. Analysts expected 230,000 new claims based on the prior week's reading of 233,000 new claims filed.

What's Ahead

This week's economic reports include readings from Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, sales reports for new and previously-owned homes, and weekly readings on average mortgage rates and new jobless claims. A monthly reading for consumer sentiment will be released Friday.

Fed Meeting Statement Points To Continuing Low Interest Rates

Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement indicates the Federal Reserve's commitment to keeping long term interest rates and inflation under control.

The Fed will continue monitoring inflation, but does not expect inflation to rise more than 0.50 percent above its target rate of 2.00 percent over the next one to two years.

Ongoing monitoring of inflation and unemployment, as well as developing economic news, will guide the Fed in its future determinations concerning policy for its present iteration of quantitative easing (QE3).

Currently, the Fed purchases $85 billion of treasury securities and mortgage –backed securities each month with the goal of keeping long-term interest rates lower.

This includes mortgage rates, which can assist homebuyers with qualifying for mortgage loans in an environment of increasing home prices. Other goals include stabilizing the labor market, and limiting inflation.

Job Growth To Be Determining Factor On Fed Interest Rate Action

The statement also noted that the Fed will keep its interest rates between 0.00 and 0.25 percent, until the Fed sees the national unemployment rate fall below 6.50 percent.

While noting that the housing sector is improving, the Fed stated concerns about ongoing high unemployment rates. Jobs are a key aspect to supporting the economy, as 70 percent of the U.S. economy involves the purchase of goods and services by consumers. 

The Fed also repeated its position to evaluate the efficacy of its quantitative easing program; if the agency finds that the program is not achieving their desired objectives, changes to the program can be expected.

While a clear majority of FOMC members voted to keep current policies intact, one member voted against this course of action citing the potential for continued quantitative easing at current levels to fuel inflation.

The bottom line for today's statement is that the Fed continues its "wait and see" position concerning quantitative easing and low federal interest rates.The committee also re-asserted its intention to gradually reduce quantitative easing when it's time for a change.

In addition, the Fed is committed to monitoring a wide range of economic data with an eye toward adjusting its policies in the best interest of economic recovery. 

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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Post-Fiscal Cliff, Mortgage Markets Turn Attention To Jobs Data

Mortgage rates moved higher Wednesday after congressional leaders voted to avoid the "Fiscal Cliff".

Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) fell as investors bid up stock prices. Confidence among investors and consumers typically causes mortgage rates to rise. That's what happened Wednesday.

For Thursday and Friday, expect jobs data to dictate where Metro Atlanta mortgage rates are headed.

The Federal Reserve has said that the national Unemployment Rate will dictate future monetary policy, with the central banker planning to raise the Fed Funds Rate from its target range near zero percent once joblessness falls to 6.5%. Currently, the jobless rate is 7.7 percent.

As the jobs market improves, equity markets should follow, causing mortgage rates to -- again -- move higher.

Thursday's Initial Jobless Claims report has already influenced today's mortgage rates. New claims rose 10,000 to 372,000 for the week ending December 29, 2012. This is slightly higher than Wall Street expected and mortgage bonds are moving better on the news.

Now, Wall Street turns its attention to Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report. 

More commonly called "the jobs report", Non-Farm Payrolls is a monthly publication from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, detailing the U.S. employment situation, sector-by-sector. The economy has added 4.6 million jobs since 2010 and analysts expect another 155,000 added in December 2012.

The Unemployment Rate is expected to tally 7.8%.

As more people get back to work, the nation's collective disposable income rises, which gives a boost to the U.S. economy. Furthermore, more taxes are paid to local, state and federal governments which are often used to finance construction and development -- two jobs creators in their own right.

Furthermore, as the ranks of the employed increase, so does the national pool of potential home buyers. With demand for homes high and rents rising in many U.S. cities, demand for homes is expected to grow. Home supplies are shrinking.

If you're currently floating a mortgage rate, or wondering whether it's a good time to buy a home, consider that an improving economy may lead mortgage rates higher; and an improving jobs market may lead home prices higher.

The market is ripe for a refinance or purchase today.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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October Jobs Report Blows Away Estimates; Mortgage Rates Falling

Another month, another good showing for the U.S. economy.

Mortgage rates are performing surprisingly well after Friday's release of the October 2012 Non-Farm Payrolls report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly report beat Wall Street expectations, while also showing a giant revision to the previously-released job tallies of August and September.

171,000 net new jobs were created last month against calls for 125,000 and revisions for the two months prior totalled 84,000.

October also marked the 25th consecutive month of U.S. job growth -- a period during which 3.8 million jobs have been reclaimed. This sum represents more than half of the 7.3 million jobs lost between 2008-2009.

Nationally, the Unemployment Rate rose by one-tenth of one percent last month to 7.9%. It may seem counter-intuitive to see unemployment rates rise even as job growth soars. However, it's a sign of economic strength.

October's rising Unemployment Rate is the result of more workers entering the U.S. workforce and actively looking for jobs, a manifestation of rising consumer confidence levels and optimism for the future.

Typically, mortgage rates in Georgia would worsen on a strong jobs report like this. This month, however, rates are improving. This is mostly the result of Hurricane Sandy, which is expected to create a drag on the U.S. economy with its $50 billion damage tag.

The storm has Wall Street looking past the strong jobs report, positioning itself for the next few months. Investors are moving into less risky assets until the uncertainty surrounding the storm's effects subside. Mortgage-backed bonds are considered "safe" and are benefiting from this safe haven buying pattern.

For home owners and buyers in Metro Atlanta and nationwide, the shift is yielding an opportunity to lock mortgage rates at artifically-low levels. 30-year fixed rate mortgages remain well below 3.50% for borrowers willing to pay discount points, and home affordability is approaching an all-time high.

Home values are expected to rise through 2013 so consider this week's low rates a gift. If you're in a position to go to contract and/or lock a mortgage rate, you may want to take that step today.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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Homes Get More Affordable On March Jobs Data

Americans continue to get back to work.

Last Friday, in its Non-Farm Payrolls report for the month of March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced 120,000 net new jobs created, plus combined revisions in the January and February reports of +4,000 jobs.

The March report marks the 18th straight month of job growth nationwide -- the first time that's happened in 5 years.

The Unemployment Rate dipped in March, too, falling one-tenth of one percent to 8.2%. This is its lowest national Unemployment Rate since February 2009.

Clearly, the jobs market is moving in the right direction. Yet, after the Non-Farm Payrolls report was released Friday morning, stock markets dropped and bond markets gained -- the opposite of what a casual market observer would expect.

It happened because, although job growth was strong, Wall Street decided it just wasn't strong enough. The market expected 200,000 jobs created in March at least and the actual reported figure fell short.

Lucky for you, Wall Street's pain is Main Street's gain. After the jobs report was released, mortgage rates immediately dropped to a 3-week low, making homes more affordable in Georgia and throughout all 50 states.

The market's reaction is an excellent example of how important jobs data can be to home affordability -- especially in a recovering economy.

The economy shed 7 million jobs between 2008-2009 and has since added more than half of them back. Wall Street pays close attention to job creation because more working Americans means more consumer spending, and more consumer spending means more economic growth.

Rate shoppers caught a bit of a break on the March payroll data. By all accounts, the labor market recovery is underway and, as it improves, higher mortgage rates are likely nationwide. For now, though, there's a window for low mortgage rates that buyers and would-be refinancing households can try to exploit.

If you're actively shopping for a home or a mortgage, today's mortgage rates may be at "last chance"-like levels. Once rates rise, they're expected to rise for good.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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Fewer Jobless Claims Suggests Higher Home Prices Ahead

Economists believe the strength of the 2012 housing market will be closely tied to jobs. If they're right, the housing market is ripe for a boost. It spells good news for Metro Atlanta home sellers and may mean the end of bargain-basement prices for buyers.

Since peaking in mid-2009, the number of U.S. workers filing for first-time unemployment benefits has dropped 44 percent. Over the same period of time, the U.S. economy has added more than 2 million jobs and the national Unemployment Rate is down more than 1 percentage point to 8.3%.

Employment's link to the housing market is both economic and psychological.

To make the economic link is straight-forward. A person with a job earns verifiable income and such income is required in order to be mortgage-eligible. For conventional and FHA purchase loans, for example, mortgage lenders want a home buyer's monthly income to be more than double his monthly debts. 

For the formerly unemployed that have since returned to work, having a full-time income makes buying homes possible. It also supports higher home valuations nationwide because home prices are based on supply-and-demand. All things equal, when the number of buyers in a market goes up, prices do, too.

The psychological connection between housing and employment is a tad more complicated, but every bit as important. It's not just out-of-work Americans that don't look for homes -- it's fearful Americans, too. People with concerns about losing a job are just as unlikely to shop for homes as people actually without a job. The same is true for people unsure of their prospects for a better-paying job, or their own upward mobility.

A recovering job market can lessen those fears and draw out buyers -- especially those who face a loss on the sale of an "underwater" home.

The Initial Jobless Claims rolling 4-week average is at its lowest level since 2008. Fewer Americans are losing jobs, and more are finding permanent placement.

It's one more reason to be optimistic for this year's housing market. 

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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