Pending Home Sales Index Continues To Show Strength

Nationwide, homes continue to sell briskly.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, the Pending Home Sales Index read 99.2 for August -- the fourth straight month in which the index hovered near its benchmark value of 100.

A "pending home" is a home that is under contract to sell, but has not yet closed. The index measures with fair accuracy the future strength of the U.S. housing market.

For today's Metro Atlanta home buyers, the August Pending Home Sales Index is relevant for several reasons.

First, the index remains near its highest point since April 2010, the last month of that year's federal home buyer tax credit. This implies that the current housing market is performing nearly as well as the "stimulated" market of two years ago -- except without the accompanying federal stimulus.

The housing market is standing on its own, in other words.

Second, the Pending Home Sales Index suggests that today's housing market is among the strongest of the last decade. We can make this inference because the Pending Home Sales Index is a relative index, benchmarked to the value of "100" which represents the housing market as it behaved in 2001.

2001 was strong year in housing. With today's Pending Home Sales Index remaining near 100, it tells us that 2012 is similarly strong.

And, third, the Pending Home Sales Index is relevant because it's a forward-looking housing metric -- one of the few that are regularly published. As compared to the Case-Shiller Index or Existing Home Sales report which both report on how housing fared in the past, the Pending Home Sales Index projects 30-60 days to the future.

Based on August data, therefore, we can expect for home sales volume to remain high as 2012 comes to a close.

If you're currently shopping for a home, you've likely noticed a change in the market. Multiple-offer situations are more common and sellers are regaining negotiation leverage. The longer you wait to buy, therefore, the more you may pay for a home.

Read the complete Pending Home Sales Report on the NAR website.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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New Home Supply Remains Firmly In "Seller's Market" Territory

The market for new construction homes remains strong nationwide.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold slipped 0.3 percent in August 2012 to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 373,000 units sold — just 1,000 units less than July 2012 and the second-highest reading since April 2010.

April 2010 was the last month of that year's tax credit which granted home buyers up to $8,000 off of their federal tax bill.

As compared to one year ago, sales of new homes are higher by 28%.

Furthermore, during the same time frame, the median sale price of a new home moved higher by 17 percent. The rising prices, in part, are the result of a shrinking national new home inventory. 

When August ended, there were just 141,000 homes for sale nationwide -- a 12% drop from the year prior. This suggests that home builders have stopped building without buyers; that some lessons were learned in last decade's homebuilding frenzy.

At today's pace of home sales, the entire stock of new homes nationwide would sell out in 4.5 months. As a comparison point, in January 2009, the new home supply reached 12.1 months.

With home supply below 6.0 months, analysts say, it signifies a "seller's market" and home supplies have not been north of 6.0 months since October 2011. And, based on recent homebuilder confidence surveys, supply doesn't appear headed back over 6.0 months anytime soon.

Builders in Georgia and nationwide report that prospective buyer foot traffic is at its highest point in 6 years. Low mortgage rates and affordable housing choices have held demand for new homes strong. Rising rents contribute, too.

For today's home buyers of new construction, then, shrinking supply amid rising demand portends higher home prices into 2013 and beyond. If you're a buyer of new construction, therefore, think about moving up your time frame. 

The best deals left in housing may be the ones you grab while the calendar still reads 2012. By January, low prices may be gone, and low rates may be, too.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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Home Price Index Shows Values Rising 3.7% From One Year Ago

Tuesday, the Federal Home Finance Agency's Home Price Index (HPI) showed home values rising 0.2% on a seasonally-adjusted basis between June and July 2012, and moving +3.7% on an annual basis.

Home values have not dropped month-to-month since January of this year -- a span of 6 months.

For today's home buyers and sellers throughout Metro Atlanta, though, it's important to recognize on what the HPI is actually reporting.

Or, stated differently, on what the HPI is not reporting. The Home Price Index is based on home price changes of some homes, of certain "types", with specific mortgage financing only.

As such, it excludes a lot of home sales from its results which skews the final product. We don't know if home values are really up 0.2% this month -- we only know that's true for the home that the HPI chooses to track.

As an example of how certain homes are excluded, because the HPI is published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency and because the FHFA gets its access to home price data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, it's upon data these two entities upon which the Home Price Index is built.

Home price data from the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), from local credit unions, and from all-cash sales, for example, are excluded from the HPI because the FHFA has no awareness that the transaction ever happened.

In 2006, this may not have been a big deal; the FHA insured just 4 percent of the housing market at the time. Today, however, the FHA is estimated to insure more than 20% of new home purchases. Furthermore, in August, more than 1 in 4 sales were made with cash.

None of these home sales were included in the HPI.

Furthermore, the Home Price Index excludes certain home types from its findings.

Home sales of condominiums, cooperatives, multi-unit homes and planned unit developments (PUD) are not used in the calculation of the HPI. In some cities, including Chicago and New York City, these property types represent a large percentage of the overall market. The HPI ignores them.

Like other home-value trackers, the Home Price Index can well highlight the housing market's broader, national trends but for specific home price data about a specific home or a ZIP code, it's better to talk with a real estate agent with local market knowledge.

Since peaking in April 2007, the Home Price Index is off 16.4 percent.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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Existing Home Sales Leap To 2-Year High

The home resale market put forth another strong data set last week. Home sales prices are higher nationwide and sales volume has moved to a 2-year high.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, 4.82 million "existing homes" sold on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis in August, representing a near 8 percent improvement from the month prior and a nine percent jump from August 2011.

An existing home is a home which has been previously occupied.

Home sales were unevenly split across price tiers, with more than half of all homes selling for less than $250,000. This suggests that the first-time home buyers and real estate investors continue to be active in today's market as a foundation for growth is built.

According to the Existing Home Sales data :

• First-time buyers accounted for 31% of all home sales
• Real estate investors accounted for 18% of all home sales
• Other, repeat buyers accounted for 51% of all home sales

Also noteworthy is that "distressed homes" accounted for the smallest percentage of overall home sales since the real estate trade group starting tracking such data.

In August, homes in various stages of foreclosures accounted for 12% of all sales and sold at an average discount of 19 percent below market value. Short sale homes accounted for 10% of all sales and sold at an average discount of 13 percent below market value.

Of all the data in the August Existing Home Sales report, though, perhaps most relevant to today's buyers is the shrinking national housing supply.

At August's end, there were 2.47 million homes listed for sale nationwide, a three percent increase from the month prior. However, because the pool of available home buyers is increasing more rapidly than the number of homes for sale, housing supplies fell 0.3 months to 6.1 months.

This means that at the current pace of sales, the entire housing supply would be sold by March 2013.

For today's home buyers, home affordability appears poised to worsen. Mortgage rates and home prices remain low today, but market conditions like these rarely last long. Contact me to discuss what options you have ahead of you. 2012 is coming to a close.

By 2013, the housing recovery may be fully underway. 

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : September 24, 2012

Mortgage markets improved for the second consecutive week last week as demand for U.S. mortgage-backed bonds remained high. A series of economic reports showed strength in housing and a stability in jobs.

Wall Street looked past it, however, to send mortgage rates to their lowest levels in history.

One week into the Federal Reserve's newest bond-buying program, the stimulus appears to be working.

According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate slipped to 3.49% last week for borrowers willing to pay an accompanying 0.6 discount points at the time of closing. Discount points are a one-time closing costs where 1 discount point is equal to one percent of your loan size.

3.49% marks a new all-time low for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage.

The 15-year fixed rate mortgage rate fell to a new all-time low last week, too, dropping to 2.77% with the same accompanying 0.6 discount points.

Mortgage rates in Georgia fell despite strong housing data.

• Housing Starts rose 5.5% to a 2-year high
• Existing Home Sales rose 7.8% to a 2-year high
• Building Permits rose 0.2%

Notably, according to the National Association of REALTORS®, the national existing home supply slipped to 6.1 months last month -- very close to the 6.0-month marker which separates a "buyer's market" from a "seller's market".

If supplies continue lower, home prices may rise more quickly than expected into 2013. Median home sale prices are already 9.5% higher as compared to one year ago.

This week, more housing data is set for release including the home value-tracking Case-Shiller Index and FHFA Home Price Index. Both are expected to show rising home prices as compared to the last recorded month, and one year ago. In addition, the National Association of REALTORS® releases its Pending Home Sales Index.

Lastly, and likely most important to mortgage rates and home affordability in Metro Atlanta, the government releases its Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report Friday. PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. An unexpected increase is expected to move mortgage rates higher.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Drops To 3.49% -- An All-Time Low

For the first time in 9 weeks, mortgage rates have made new lows.

According to Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate fell 6 basis points to 3.49% this week, tying the all-time low set in late-July. The 15-year fixed rate mortgage also dropped, moving to 2.77%. This, too, marks an all-time low.

The Federal Reserve's plan to pressure mortgage rates down may be working.

However, depending on where you live, your access to these all-time rates may be limited. This is because the Freddie Mac "published rate" is a national average based on the government-backed group's survey of more 125 banks.

Mortgage rates can vary by region.

For example, this week, mortgage applicants in the West Region are most likely to get the lowest rates of anyone.

In the West Region, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates are averaging 3.43 percent with an accompanying 0.6 discount points. By contrast, applicants in the Southeast Region are most likely to get the highest rates with the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is averaging 3.53% with an accompanying 0.7 discount points.

1 discount point is a fee equal to one percent of your loan size. Loans with more accompanying discount points pay higher total closing costs.

This week's record-low rates are a boon to home affordability and, as compared to last September, mortgage rates are much improved :

• September 2011 : Average rate of 4.09%
• September 2012 : Average rate of 3.49% 

Over the past 12 months, this 60-basis point mortgage rate improvement has increased the maximum purchase price of a Metro Atlanta home buyer by roughly 7%. Home prices, however, may soon catch up.

Earlier this week, the Census Bureau reported Housing Starts at a multi-year high and the Existing Home Sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® showed the same. Housing is in recovery and prices are on an upward trajectory.

Take advantage of low mortgage rates while they last. Talk to your loan officer today.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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Housing Starts Move To 2-Year High

The new construction housing market continues to make gains.

Wednesday, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Housing Starts for single-family homes up 5.5 percent in August to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized count of 535,000 units nationwide.

The report marks the fifth month of six that single-family starts increased, and marks the highest starts tally since April 2010 -- the last month of that year's federal homebuyer tax credit program.

A "housing start" is a new home on which construction has started and the steady growth in single-family starts suggests a stronger Georgia housing market into 2013.

All four U.S. regions showed single-family housing start growth on both a monthly basis and on an annual one :

• Northeast Region : 4.5% monthly growth; 31.4% annual growth
• Midwest Region : 15.6% monthly growth; 74.5% annual growth
• South Region : 3.2% monthly growth; 17.2% annual growth
• Midwest Region : 4.6% monthly growth; 23.9% annual growth

The data is just the latest in a series of signals that today's Metro Atlanta new construction housing market has put its worst days behind it.

The nation's home builders appear to agree, as well.

Earlier this week, the National Association of Homebuilders released its Housing Market Index, a monthly metric which measures homebuilder confidence in the new construction market.

The homebuilder trade association put the HMI at 40 -- a 6-year high. Builders expect a strong finish to 2012 and for momentum to carry into 2013 and beyond.

The new construction market -- like most of housing -- has been fueled by a combination of the lowest mortgage rates in history, ample access to low- and no-downpayment mortgages, and an ever-shrinking supply of new homes for sale.

In July there were just 142,000 new homes for sale nationwide, down 14% from the year prior. As supply shrinks, all things equal, new home prices rise.

If you've been considering new construction, therefore, talk to builders sooner rather than later. As demand for homes heats up, prices are likely to rise.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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Homebuilder Confidence Rises Again; Tops 40

Home builder confidence continues to make new highs. 

As reported by the National Association of Home Builders, the Housing Market Index, a measure of builder confidence, rose to a reading of 40 in September -- its highest mark since June 2006.

The index is now higher through five straight months and 11 of the last 12.

For home buyers in Metro Atlanta, the survey may be signaling higher new home prices ahead; when builders are more confident in housing, they're may be less likely to make concessions in price, and to "sweeten" deals with free upgrades and/or subsidized mortgage rates.

The Housing Market Index is published monthly, based on responses to a 3-question survey that the NAHB sends to its members. The questions cover three distinct parts of a builder's business, each requiring a simple, one-word answer.

Builders are asked to respond with "Good", "Fair" or "Poor"; or, "High", "Average", "Low" to the following three comments :

• Rate market conditions for the sale of new homes today
• Rate market conditions for the sale of new homes 6 months from today
• Rate the foot traffic of prospective new home buyers

All three survey components showed an increase from August with buyer foot traffic rating at its highest point in more than 6 years. This is especially noteworthy because as the number of prospective buyers increases, so does competition for homes for sale.

There are currently just 142,000 new homes for sale nationwide, the stock of which will "sell out" in 4.6 months at the current pace of sales.

Not since October 2011 has the national home supply been above six months, the consensus dividing line between bull and bear market. Today's new construction market favors builders and builders know it.

If you're planning to buy new construction in Georgia later this year or into early-2013, consider moving up your time frame. Homes may be for sale, but they won't likely be as inexpensive as they are today.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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Foreclosures Remain Concentrated In Just A Few States

The national market for foreclosed homes remains strong.

According to foreclosure data firm RealtyTrac, foreclosure activity increased 1 percent in August as compared to the month prior, climbing to just above 193,500 units nationwide.

1 in every 681 U.S. households received some form of foreclosure filing last month where a "foreclosure filing" is any one of the following foreclosure-related events : A default notice on a home; a scheduled auction for a home; or, a bank repossession of a home.

Default notices climbed in August which indicates that more U.S. homeowners are falling behind on payments.

However, for the 22nd consecutive month, the number of bank repossessions fell. This suggests that lenders are reaching alternative outcomes to foreclosure more frequently, and with more success, reducing the number of homes for sale nationwide.

Fewer homes for sale is one reason why U.S. home prices have been rising.

Like everything in real estate, though, foreclosures are a local event. In August, just six states accounted for more than half of the country's bank repossessions. Those six states -- California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan and Arizona -- account for less than 31% of the U.S. population.

Clearly, foreclosures remain concentrated. However, bank-owned homes can still make for "good deals" across all 50 states. This is because foreclosed homes are typically sold at steep discounts versus comparable, non-distressed homes.

Just be sure to do your foreclosure research first.

Buying a home in foreclosure is different from buying a home not in foreclosure. The contract and negotiation phases are different, and foreclosed homes are often sold as-is.

"As-is" is real estate-speak for "this home may be defective and/or uninhabitable".

Therefore, if you plan to buy foreclosure, talk with a real estate professional first. You can learn a lot about a foreclosure by doing research online. However, when it comes time to write a contract, you'll want to have an expert on your home-buying team.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : September 17, 2012

Mortgage markets improved last week as the Federal Reserve introduced new economic stimulus. The move trumped bond-harming action from the Eurozone, and a series better-than-expected U.S. economic data.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate dropped last week for most loan types, including for conforming, FHA and VA loans. 15-year fixed rate mortgage rates improved, as well.

Mortgage rates are back near their lowest levels of all-time.

Last week's main event was the Federal Open Market Committee's sixth scheduled meeting of 2012. Wall Street expected the Fed to launch a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) after its meeting and the nation's central banker did not disappoint.

It launched QE3 and did so with such scale that even Wall Street was shocked.

The Federal Reserve announced a plan to purchase $40 billion monthly of mortgage-backed bonds indefinitely, a move aimed at lowering U.S. mortgage rates in order to stimulate the housing market which can create more jobs in construction and other related industries.

The Fed will continue to buy mortgage bonds until it deems such purchases no longer necessary. The Fed also announced a commitment to holding the Fed Funds Rate in its current target range of 0.000-0.250% until mid-2015, at least.

Mortgage rates responded favorably to the stimulus, falling to their lowest levels of the week. It masked a rise in rates from earlier in the week tied to the German court's clearing of the European Stability Mechanism -- the Eurozone "bailout fund".

The action clears the way for debt-burdened nations including Spain and Greece to get the support necessary to remain solvent.

Mortgage rates were also pressured higher by a strong consumer confidence report. When consumers are more confident in the economy, they may be more likely to spend and consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

This week, mortgage rates throughout Georgia face competing pressures. The Fed's bond-buy has started and that will lead rates lower, but with Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales data set for release, data could pull rates up.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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